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The U.S. housing market is still navigating choppy waters, especially on the supply side, as evidenced by the new residential sales and building permits data. After a pause of approximately four months, primarily due to the federal government shutdown in October and November 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly released the statistics for October 2025. The month’s new residential sales inched down month over month but grew year over year. On the other hand, October’s new residential construction fell both month over month and year over year.
As of October 2025, the market was adjusting according to the Fed rate cut in September 2025, with expectations about two more cuts by 2025 end boosting optimism. Although the trend of lowering interest rates stimulated the homebuyers’ intention of owning a new house, the homebuilders fell short of this trend. The mortgage rates are circling 6%, but the ongoing macro headwinds are restricting growth opportunities.
Diving Into the Numbers
Per the Jan. 13, 2026 report released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, new single-family home sales for October 2025 were 737,000 units, down 0.1% from September 2025 but up 18.7% from October 2024. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2025 was $392,300, down 3.3% month over month and 8% year over year. The average sales price (ASP) of new homes sold during the month was $498,000, up 3% from September 2025 but down 4.6% year over year.
Per the Jan. 9, 2026, report released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October 2025 were 1,412,000, indicating a decline of 0.2% month over month and 1.1% year over year. Single-family home building permits during the month were 876,000, down 0.5% from September 2025.
In October 2025, privately-owned housing starts were 1,246,000, indicating 4.6% decline from September 2025 and 7.8% fall from October 2024. Moreover, during the month, single-family housing starts were up month over month by 5.4%.
Privately-owned homes completed in October 2025 was 1.1% more than in September 2025 but 15.3% down year over year at 1,386,000 units. Single-family housing completions in October 2025 were 1,009,000, up 6% month over month.
Knowing the Mortgage Rate
According to the mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.17% for the week that concluded on Oct. 30, 2025. This fixed rate moved down 2 basis points (bps) from 6.34% at the week concluded on Oct. 23, 2025, and 17 bps from 6.72% at the week concluded on Oct. 2. Notably, the recent 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 55 bps from 6.72% at the week concluded on Oct. 31, 2024.
Here’s Our Take on the Scenario
In early 2026, the U.S. housing industry is expected to witness improvements on the back of declining mortgage rate trends and the optimism surrounding the new policies under the current government. Recently, the Trump administration ordered $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases in an attempt to bring down housing costs. This strategic move is anticipated to cool down the ongoing affordability challenges and indicate a housing market rebound in 2026.
However, despite this spark of market improvement, the ongoing macro headwinds related to tariffs and inflationary conditions are taking a toll on the supply side. These trends can be witnessed from the homebuilding industry’s share price underperforming the broader Construction sector and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite in the past six months, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Homebuilders like Century Communities, Inc. (CCS - Free Report) , Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH - Free Report) and Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK - Free Report) are banking on the favorable fundamentals surrounding the housing market. Despite the ongoing macro headwinds, these homebuilding stocks are expected to experience growth in the near term.
Century Communities’ earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026 are expected to grow 34.2% year over year. The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average being 20.4%.
Dream Finders Homes: Based in Jacksonville, FL, this homebuilding company also currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. Shares of the company have declined 29.2% in the past six months.
The company’s earnings estimates for 2026 have moved up in the past 60 days. Dream Finders Homes’ EPS estimates for 2026 are expected to grow 4.6% year over year. The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, missed on two occasions and met on the remaining occasion, with the negative average being 2.8%.
Green Brick Partners: Headquartered in Plano, TX, this homebuilder also carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The stock has soared 11.2% in the past six months.
The company’s earnings estimates for 2026 have moved up in the past 90 days. Green Brick Partners’ EPS estimates for 2026 are expected to inch down 0.3% year over year. The company’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters, the average being 13.2%.
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New Home Sales & Permits Down: What's Next for the Housing Market?
Key Takeaways
The U.S. housing market is still navigating choppy waters, especially on the supply side, as evidenced by the new residential sales and building permits data. After a pause of approximately four months, primarily due to the federal government shutdown in October and November 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly released the statistics for October 2025. The month’s new residential sales inched down month over month but grew year over year. On the other hand, October’s new residential construction fell both month over month and year over year.
As of October 2025, the market was adjusting according to the Fed rate cut in September 2025, with expectations about two more cuts by 2025 end boosting optimism. Although the trend of lowering interest rates stimulated the homebuyers’ intention of owning a new house, the homebuilders fell short of this trend. The mortgage rates are circling 6%, but the ongoing macro headwinds are restricting growth opportunities.
Diving Into the Numbers
Per the Jan. 13, 2026 report released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, new single-family home sales for October 2025 were 737,000 units, down 0.1% from September 2025 but up 18.7% from October 2024. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2025 was $392,300, down 3.3% month over month and 8% year over year. The average sales price (ASP) of new homes sold during the month was $498,000, up 3% from September 2025 but down 4.6% year over year.
Per the Jan. 9, 2026, report released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October 2025 were 1,412,000, indicating a decline of 0.2% month over month and 1.1% year over year. Single-family home building permits during the month were 876,000, down 0.5% from September 2025.
In October 2025, privately-owned housing starts were 1,246,000, indicating 4.6% decline from September 2025 and 7.8% fall from October 2024. Moreover, during the month, single-family housing starts were up month over month by 5.4%.
Privately-owned homes completed in October 2025 was 1.1% more than in September 2025 but 15.3% down year over year at 1,386,000 units. Single-family housing completions in October 2025 were 1,009,000, up 6% month over month.
Knowing the Mortgage Rate
According to the mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.17% for the week that concluded on Oct. 30, 2025. This fixed rate moved down 2 basis points (bps) from 6.34% at the week concluded on Oct. 23, 2025, and 17 bps from 6.72% at the week concluded on Oct. 2. Notably, the recent 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 55 bps from 6.72% at the week concluded on Oct. 31, 2024.
Here’s Our Take on the Scenario
In early 2026, the U.S. housing industry is expected to witness improvements on the back of declining mortgage rate trends and the optimism surrounding the new policies under the current government. Recently, the Trump administration ordered $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases in an attempt to bring down housing costs. This strategic move is anticipated to cool down the ongoing affordability challenges and indicate a housing market rebound in 2026.
However, despite this spark of market improvement, the ongoing macro headwinds related to tariffs and inflationary conditions are taking a toll on the supply side. These trends can be witnessed from the homebuilding industry’s share price underperforming the broader Construction sector and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite in the past six months, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Homebuilders like Century Communities, Inc. (CCS - Free Report) , Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH - Free Report) and Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK - Free Report) are banking on the favorable fundamentals surrounding the housing market. Despite the ongoing macro headwinds, these homebuilding stocks are expected to experience growth in the near term.
3 Bundled Homebuilders to Look Into
Century Communities: This Colorado-based homebuilder currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The company’s shares have gained 13.1% in the past six months. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Century Communities’ earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026 are expected to grow 34.2% year over year. The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average being 20.4%.
Dream Finders Homes: Based in Jacksonville, FL, this homebuilding company also currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. Shares of the company have declined 29.2% in the past six months.
The company’s earnings estimates for 2026 have moved up in the past 60 days. Dream Finders Homes’ EPS estimates for 2026 are expected to grow 4.6% year over year. The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, missed on two occasions and met on the remaining occasion, with the negative average being 2.8%.
Green Brick Partners: Headquartered in Plano, TX, this homebuilder also carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The stock has soared 11.2% in the past six months.
The company’s earnings estimates for 2026 have moved up in the past 90 days. Green Brick Partners’ EPS estimates for 2026 are expected to inch down 0.3% year over year. The company’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters, the average being 13.2%.